Favorites and Sleepers: 110th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge

Note: INDYCAR.com’s Eric Smith takes a lighthearted look before each NTT INDYCAR SERIES race at drivers with an inside line to Victory Lane and others who could surprise with a strong result.

The stage is set: 33 cars, 200 laps and one bottle of milk waiting in Victory Lane.

Who kisses the Yard of Bricks first in Sunday’s 110th Running of the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge (10 a.m. ET, FOX, FOX Deportes, FOX One, INDYCAR Radio powered by OnlyBulls)?

History says the winner likely will come from 19th or better on the starting grid, as that’s happened in 38 consecutive races. But this is Indy – and this place has a way of choosing its own winners.

Favorites

Josef Newgarden (No. 2 Shell Fuel Rewards Team Penske Chevrolet)

Newgarden climbed from 32nd to sixth before a fuel pressure problem ended his race after 135 laps last year. Still, he has been one of the drivers to beat recently, winning two of the last three Indianapolis 500s (2023, 2024).

He owns four top-five finishes in his last seven Indy starts and won this season’s lone oval race, the Good Ranchers 250 on March 7 at Phoenix Raceway. Starting 23rd doesn’t eliminate him -- especially considering 19 of his 33 career wins have come on oval tracks.

He topped both practice sessions during race week.

Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 Pennzoil Team Penske Chevrolet)

McLaughlin looks to rebound from the lowest of lows after crashing on the pace lap last year. Speed hasn’t been an issue this month, but results at Indianapolis have been inconsistent. His lone top-10 finish in five starts was a sixth-place run in 2024.

He starts ninth.

There are also several historical coincidences working in his favor. Team Penske is 4-for-5 in Indianapolis 500s held May 24, winning in 1981 (Bobby Unser), 1987 (Al Unser), 2009 (Helio Castroneves) and 2015 (Juan Pablo Montoya). The No. 3 car also won in 1981, 1992 and 2009.

Montoya qualified 10th the year before his 2015 victory -- and McLaughlin qualified 10th last year.

McLaughlin owns two career oval wins, both earned in 2024 at Iowa Speedway and the Milwaukee Mile.

Pato O’Ward (No. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

It feels like only a matter of time before O’Ward wins the Indianapolis 500.

The Arrow McLaren driver has two runner-up finishes in the last four years and five top-six finishes in six career starts. More importantly, he has experience battling at the front late in the race, something he believes could finally carry him to Victory Lane.

He starts sixth, but it will be in a backup car after he was involved in a heavy crash during post-qualifying practice Monday with Alexander Rossi.

O’Ward has four career oval victories: Texas Motor Speedway (2021), Iowa Speedway (2022 and 2025) and the Milwaukee Mile (2024).

This is the same car in which he won last year’s race at Iowa.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Dixon feels overdue for another Indianapolis 500 victory, with his lone win coming in 2008.

The six-time INDYCAR SERIES champion has posted two top-six finishes in the last three years and has been consistently quick since the Open Test, standing as the only driver to rank inside the top 10 in every practice session without extra engine boost – not used in the race – this month.

Still, inconsistency has hurt him recently, as three of his last five Indy 500 finishes have been 17th or worse.

Dixon starts 10th and enters the race just 23 laps shy of 700 career laps led at Indianapolis. He also leads all active drivers with 25 career oval victories.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Back-to-back Indianapolis 500 winners are rare, though Newgarden accomplished the feat in 2023 and 2024.

Palou enters as THE favorite after winning three of the first six races this season. Since joining Chip Ganassi Racing, he has recorded five top-10 finishes in five Indianapolis 500 starts, including runner-up in 2021, fourth in 2023 and fifth in 2024.

He starts from pole position.

Palou turned 29 on April 1, notable because ages 29 and 32 are tied for the most common ages of Indianapolis 500 winners, with nine victories each. The last 29-year-old winners were Parnelli Jones (1963), A.J. Foyt (1964), Jim Clark (1965) and Mario Andretti (1969).

Sleepers

David Malukas (No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet)

Malukas finished second last year with AJ Foyt Racing, then followed it up by winning the pole and leading the most laps at Phoenix this season with Team Penske, his first career NTT P1 Award. He finished third in the race.

He has shown speed throughout the month and starts third Sunday.

Malukas appears poised to become just the fifth driver since 1967 to join Arie Luyendyk (1990), Buddy Lazier (1996), Helio Castroneves (2001) and Alexander Rossi (2016) to earn their first career series victory in the “500.”

Santino Ferrucci (No. 14 Homes For Our Troops Chevrolet)

Ferrucci has become one of the most reliable Indianapolis 500 performers in the field.

In seven starts, the AJ Foyt Racing driver has never finished outside the top 10, an event record for any driver’s first seven starts. He led 11 laps during a third-place finish in 2023 and followed with a fifth-place run last year.

He starts fifth.

Alexander Rossi (No. 20 Java House Chevrolet)

Rossi shocked the racing world by winning the 100th Running of the Indianapolis 500 as a rookie in 2016. Ten years later, can he do it again?

He starts second -- the best starting position of his Indy 500 career. But he is in a backup car and wearing a carbon-fiber brace on his right ankle injured in a heavy crash Monday in post-qualifying practice.

Rossi has three top-five finishes in the last four years and seven top-seven finishes in 10 career starts. During that span, he has led 107 laps.

His two career oval victories include Pocono Raceway in 2018, too.

Christian Rasmussen (No. 21 Splenda Chevrolet)

The Danish driver was the top-finishing rookie in 2024 with a 12th-place result.

Last year, he improved to sixth. If that trend continues, Rasmussen may be destined for Victory Lane.

He also earned his first career oval win and series win last season at the Milwaukee Mile.

Conor Daly (No. 23 DRR Kingspan Chevrolet)

Daly believes this is the best Indianapolis 500 car he has driven, and the speed charts back him up.

The Indiana native finished eighth last year, marking his fourth consecutive top-10 finish in the race and his fifth top-10 in the last seven years.