No Clear Favorite as Wide-Open Qualifying Looms at Indy

Will Power has won a record 71 poles as an NTT INDYCAR SERIES driver, but none of them have come in the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge. Meanwhile, Robert Shwartzman scored his only career pole as a rookie in last year’s race.

Those are more than fun facts – or not-so-fun facts if you’re Power, the 2018 “500” winner. But it speaks to the unpredictability of PPG Presents Armed Forces Qualifying, which will offer its latest version this weekend on the historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval.

Thirty-three drivers will have the opportunity to win this year’s pole. Five in this field have done so in the past. Scott Dixon has won five, Helio Castroneves four, Ed Carpenter three. The single pole winners here are Scott McLaughlin and Alex Palou.

But that’s racing too far in the past to assess the future. First, these drivers and others must put themselves in position to make a pole-winning run, and that begins Saturday.

At 11 a.m. ET, Dixon (photo, above) will have the first opportunity to begin a four-lap timed run like hundreds of drivers have done in the past. Following that, the rest of the field can do likewise, all with the same objective: Post a time that ranks as one of the 15 fastest at day’s end.

This year’s qualifying format has an extra round, driven by having only the requisite 33 participants. So, starting positions 16 through 33 will be locked in the Saturday session that ends at 5:50 p.m. ET. Everyone else will advance to Sunday’s action, with the fastest nine locked into the Top 12 qualifying session for a chance to compete for the coveted NTT P1 Award.

Cars ranked 10 through 15 on Saturday will compete in the Fast 15 round Sunday in reverse order beginning at 4 p.m. ET, with the top three advancing to the Fast 12. At approximately 5 p.m., that round will begin with drivers making runs from slowest to fastest. The top six will move on to compete in the Firestone Fast Six at approximately at 6:35 p.m.

That is the format and the timeline. The contenders are still to be determined.

The Frontrunners

Felix Rosenqvist finished Fast Friday with the fastest overall lap as teams simulated qualifying runs. Alexander Rossi was second, followed by McLaughlin. But those speeds don’t guarantee anything, especially when almost no one was able to have the track to themselves as they will in qualifying. Last year, McLaughlin was quickest on Fast Friday, but he ended qualifying in the 10th position. Shwartzman was 13th at 231.295 mph but he stunningly won the pole with a four-lap average of 232.790 mph.

Palou has consistently been among the fastest in practice this week – he was No. 1 on Tuesday and No. 2 on Wednesday -- and he is confident about his chances for a second Indy pole. But obviously, finishing first is more important than starting first. Palou’s win last year came from the sixth starting position, and it’s worth noting that in the past 10 years, the winner’s average starting position is 6.1.

Conor Daly turned the fastest lap of Wednesday’s session, and he aims to give Dreyer & Reinbold Racing its highest starting position since Robbie Buhl earned the second spot in 2002. Daly’s best start in the event is 11th – in 2019 and last year. His best lap Friday ranked 13th.

“Conor looks very, very strong,” three-time Indy winner Dario Franchitti said late in Friday’s FS2 broadcast. “So does Rossi, and McLaughlin.”

Team Penske’s drivers look confident given the limited number of laps they turned Friday, although it would be difficult to predict which driver leads the way. Newcomer David Malukas, who is fighting a bad cold, finished second in last year’s race and has consistently had the quickest car of the three this week. But McLaughlin won the pole here in 2024 and is hoping to make amends for a crash last year ahead of the start of the race. He and Malukas made only one simulated qualifying run each Friday, so they must be happy.

Newgarden’s (photo, above) best lap on a given day has been as high as fourth this week, but surprisingly he has only one front-row start at Indy – he was third in 2024 – and his average starting position is 13.2. Given his experience, it’s difficult to know if he’s shown what his car has.

A pole by a Team Penske driver would extend the organization’s Indy record to 20. Chip Ganassi Racing is second with eight. AJ Foyt Racing and ECR are next among active teams with three.

Dixon can tie Rick Mears’ event record with a sixth career pole. Dixon said Friday that he hasn’t had as much track time as in past years, and he had been the only driver to be in the top 10 of every session this year, including last month’s two-day Indianapolis 500 Open Test, until Friday, when he was 12th.

Said Chip Ganassi of his drivers, including Kyffin Simpson, “I don’t know if we’re 1-2-3 pole material, but we feel good about (qualifying).”

Others To Watch

All three drivers employed by Meyer Shank Racing w/Curb Agajanian have shown speed this week. Castroneves’ history at IMS speaks for itself, and he has been as high as second on the time sheets this week (that was Thursday). Rosenqvist has qualified in the top nine each of the past four years, earning a front-row position in 2023, and he was fourth Thursday. Marcus Armstrong was second Tuesday, but this would be his first time to reach the Fast 12.

Pato O’Ward paced Thursday’s practice. He started on the front row last year in third and has been no lower than eighth in qualifying the past four years. He has had the most Indy race success of any driver in this field who doesn’t have a likeness on the Borg-Warner Trophy.

Santino Ferrucci’s seven-year start to “500s” is much discussed – he has finished in the top 10 in each – but his qualifying efforts have been strong, as well. The last three years he’s been fourth, sixth and 15th at the drop of the green flag.

ECR’s trio could be a factor Sunday, too. Carpenter (photo, above) last won the pole in 2018, but he has started fourth or higher in seven of the past 12 races, and he had a strong Fast Friday (ranking seventh). Rossi has made the Fast 12 each of the past three years and earned a spot on the front row in 2018. Christian Rasmussen has raced here in two previous starts, finishing sixth last year, but his qualifying – an average of 21.0 – hasn’t been strong. But he won an oval race last year at the Milwaukee Mile.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is having a strong month compared to recent years. Graham Rahal has consistently been among the top runners, and Takuma Sato, the two-time Indy winner, is always good for a strong qualifying effort. He started second last year, the fourth year in a row he has been in the top 10. He also started on the front row when he won in 2020.

Said Rahal of RLL’s chances on the 40th anniversary of his father’s 1986 Indy win, “The team has certainly elevated (its) game in every aspect … the confidence is high.”

Power is one of the wild cards in the field, along with Romain Grosjean, who has gone ninth, fifth and eighth in this week’s practices before ending up 30th Friday. It will be interesting to see how Power’s teammates – 2022 winner Marcus Ericsson and Kyle Kirkwood – fare, as well.

Power (photo, above) started in the top nine in 11 straight years (2009-19), but he has only one top-10 start since (second in 2024). He hadn’t been in the top 12 at the end of any session this week until earning the 14th position on Friday, but he is the greatest qualifier in the history of this sport. But this is Indy. Go figure.

Finally, keep an eye on the weather. It could be a factor Saturday with the possibility of mid-morning/early afternoon rain, and it could mean that each driver only gets one run on the clock. Plus, temperatures are expected to climb through the weekend, so add that important variable to the mix.

Saturday’s one-hour pre-qualifying practice is set for 8:30 a.m. ET. It’s time to see what these drivers have for real speed.