Favorites and Sleepers: St. Petersburg

Note: Eric Smith of INDYCAR.com takes a fun look before each NTT INDYCAR SERIES race at drivers who enter the weekend with an inside line to victory lane and drivers who could surprise with a strong result.

Coverage of the season-opening Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg begins at noon ET Sunday on FOX, FOX One, FOX Deportes and the INDYCAR Radio Network. All INDYCAR programming also streams live on the FOX Sports app.

This Favorites and Sleepers powered by NTT DATA primer sets the scene with five drivers to watch as favorites and five more drivers to watch as sleepers who could sneak their way to victory lane on the 14-turn, 1.8-mile temporary circuit through the city streets.

For last year’s race, Smith’s 10 picks swept the top eight finishing positions.

Favorites

Josef Newgarden (No. 2 Astemo Team Penske Chevrolet)

Newgarden (photo, above) began his Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg career 0-for-8. That’s not just in terms of victories but top-five finishes. He’s since done a 180. In the last seven races, Newgarden has two wins and a runner-up finish. He was third last year.

Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 DEX Team Penske Chevrolet)

Last year’s NTT P1 Award winner for St. Petersburg, McLaughlin (photo, above) was on the wrong end of strategy and finished fourth. He won the 2022 race from the pole.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Street courses have become some of Palou’s better circuits. He has just three finishes worse than eighth in his last 19 street course tries. Palou (photo, above) boasts nine podium finishes and 14 top-six results on these tracks during that span, including a runner-up in the 2022 race around the 1.8-mile Florida street course and a win last year. He also has a 3.75 average finish in his last four St. Petersburg starts.

Will Power (No. 26 TWG AI Honda)

This is his first race with Andretti Global, and you know Power (photo, above) will start with a vengeance. St. Petersburg has been a great track for Power in the past; it’s also the same for this car he’s driving. Colton Herta, driving the No. 26 Honda last season, started on the front row in all four street races and has starting spots of third, first, third, second, fourth and second, respectively, in St. Petersburg. Insert Power, who has nine NTT P1 Awards on this track and a 2010 win. He has three top-seven finishes, including a runner-up in 2024, in his last four St. Petersburg starts.

Kyle Kirkwood (No. 27 JM Bullion/Gold.com Honda)

Kirkwood (photo, top) has improved his finish in all four St. Petersburg starts, going from 18th in 2022 to 15th in 2023 to 10th in 2024 to fifth last year. In the junior ranks on the streets of St. Petersburg, Kirkwood finished first and second, respectively, in INDY NXT by Firestone in 2021, 14th and second in Indy Pro 2000 and first and fifth in USF2000. He’s won four times on street courses during his career, including two last year at Long Beach and Detroit. Kirkwood boasted a series-best 3.25 average finish in four street course starts last season.

Sleepers

Christian Lundgaard (No. 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

The Dane (photo, above) had an eighth-place average street course finish in his first season with Arrow McLaren last year. Among that average was an eighth-place finish here for his third top-11 finish in four St. Petersburg starts.

Kyffin Simpson (No. 8 Sunoco Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

He has finished 12th and 18th in his two St. Petersburg starts, but last year Simpson (photo, above) had three top-10 finishes in four street course starts, including a fifth-place run in Detroit and third place at Toronto.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Last year’s runner-up finisher is winless in 21 St. Petersburg starts. That was his fifth podium result in his last nine starts on the track. He also has finished eighth or better every year since 2016. Over his last 19 street course starts overall, Dixon (photo, above) has four wins (Toronto 2022, Nashville 2023, Long Beach 2024, Detroit 2024) and 13 top-six results, including fifth or better in 10 of those races.

Marcus Ericsson (No. 28 Delaware Life Honda)

The 2023 Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg race winner (photo, above) is a “sleeper” because while he’s a three-time winner on street circuits in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES, he has scored just three top-five finishes in his last 19 street course starts overall. He did finish sixth last year, his fifth top-10 finish in his last six St. Petersburg starts and was 12th, 13th and fifth in the other three street course starts last season.

Felix Rosenqvist (No. 60 SiriusXM Honda)

Watch out for the Swede this weekend. Rosenqvist (photo, above) qualified second and finished fifth in 2024 while also starting third and finishing seventh last year. He had a 7.33 average finish in four street course events in 2024 and 12.75 last year. He also has eight top-10 finishes in his last 12 street course starts overall. As a rookie in 2019 during the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, Rosenqvist qualified third, led 31 laps and finished fourth. Meyer Shank Racing also has good cars at St. Petersburg. Jack Harvey finished fourth after qualifying on the front row in 2021.