Note: With eight of 17 races completed in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES season, the Writers’ Roundtable will answer five questions about the 2023 season between June 22-27.

Today’s question: Who is your pick to win the championship in 2023?

Curt Cavin: I keep waiting for Josef Newgarden to make a big move. Sure, winning the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge makes his season complete – it would make anyone’s season complete – but the two-time series champion hasn’t been able to string top-five results together. Yes, Newgarden has a pair of race wins as part of six top-10 finishes in eight races, but he has four finishes of ninth or lower, which if that pattern continues it certainly won’t be enough to catch and overhaul Alex Palou. Honestly, if Palou can avoid having horrible luck in a couple of races, he’s the champion for the second time in three years, and I expect he will. So that’s my pick. But if I’m the Spaniard, I have my eyes wide open to what Newgarden and Scott Dixon are doing. Newgarden nearly swiped the 2020 title from Dixon in the final three races – Dixon essentially had the same lead as Palou has now – and Newgarden’s group is good enough to do that again. Same for Dixon and his group. But Palou isn’t prone to mistakes and recovers from misfortune as well as anyone in the series, so he wins again. Now, let’s see if Joey and Paul agree.

Joey Barnes: You have to start with who is believed to still be eligible for the title. Palou is swinging with a stout 74-point lead over second-place man Marcus Ericsson, his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate. Look further down the running order and Andretti Autosport’s Colton Herta is ninth in the overall standings but a staggering 141 points back of the leader after just eight of 17 rounds. With three wins, four podiums and no finish worse than eighth, it truly speaks to the unrelenting run Palou has displayed thus far. However, unless we are about to witness one of the greatest championship performances ever, speed bumps are inevitable in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES, and if you’re the leading the points, usually pressure follows. Looking at last year’s run of results over the final nine races, no driver scored more podiums than Will Power, who rolled to six top-three results en route to the title. And perhaps no other driver grew more and put on a rampant display than Power’s Team Penske teammate Scott McLaughlin, who claimed two wins, four podiums and six top-fives and only one result outside the top 10 to finish fourth in the championship. Scott Dixon scored two wins, three podiums and five top-fives with only one result outside the top 10 to finish third in the standings. Meanwhile, Newgarden pulled together two wins, three podiums, four top-fives and one finish outside the top 10, which happened to be a crash while leading at the second race at Iowa Speedway last year, and ended up second in points. After a strong start to the season that included an Indianapolis 500 win, Ericsson ended up in a freefall with no podiums and only one top-five – and three finishes outside the top 10 – to finish sixth in the championship. And then there’s Palou, who scored a dominant win at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca to cap off a year that saw his mental strength tested to its limits, and he captured two additional podiums – all of which accounted for his top-fives, but also had two results outside the top 10. The reality is that even in 2021 when Palou won the title, he has never had a “flawless” second half of the year, though it’s still been damn good. With all this said and comparing the current standings and how drivers/teams have performed to this point in 2023, I think the remaining top five behind Palou – Ericsson, Newgarden, Pato O’Ward and Dixon – are still in position and have the ability to reel him in. It can be done, but it’ll be a reach for someone like McLaughlin (-125 points), Alexander Rossi (-128 points) or Power (-134 points). I think someone does, though, and believe that someone is O’Ward. The Arrow McLaren driver is fourth in the standings – oddly enough with a tiebreaker over Dixon – at 98 points back, and that comes without truly hitting his stride yet this year even with three runner-up finishes. Additionally, the Mexican has proven to be on the short list of anyone who can rival Newgarden at Iowa after scoring a win and a runner-up there last year. In fact, O’Ward has nine top-four finishes, including six podiums, over the last 14 races dating back to that doubleheader weekend in the cornfields. There has been a feeling that Arrow McLaren as a whole has been tapping on the glass and has been on the cusp of breaking through. It’s not a matter of if, but when. And when it does, I believe the floodgates will open for O’Ward to make a thrilling surge to the title and put Arrow McLaren firmly in the “Big Three” conversation next to the likes of Ganassi and Penske.

Paul Kelly: I’ll keep this neat and petite: The Astor Challenge Cup is Alex Palou’s to lose, and he won’t loosen his grasp on the trophy, winning it for the second time in three years. Palou has shown no weaknesses this season, with top-eight finishes in all eight events. The Spaniard has three wins and probably would have won four of the first eight races if he wasn’t body-checked against the pit wall by Rinus VeeKay at the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge. That incident would have ended or dented that race for many other drivers and teams, yet Palou and Chip Ganassi Racing calmly rallied to finish fourth. That’s a metaphor, the kind of talent and mental resiliency that won’t be beaten this season. The only two drivers in my mind with a chance to overhaul Palou are second-place Marcus Ericsson and third-place Josef Newgarden. But Ericsson doesn’t have Palou’s pace (no one does right now, by the way), and Newgarden lacks Palou’s consistency. Realize that Palou not only is dominating on Race Day, but he has started in the top seven at every race this season. This is shaping up to be a season for the ages from Palou, and we should savor it. I love unpredictable parity as much as the next person, but once in a while it’s also very rewarding to see a driver and team at their respective, butt-kicking peaks steamroll the most competitive championship in global motorsports.