SONOMA, California – For the 13th consecutive year, the Verizon IndyCar Series championship will be decided by what happens in the final race of the season. Qualifying for the INDYCAR Grand Prix of Sonoma didn’t offer many clues Saturday about which driver might be crowned and hoist the Astor Cup.
Scott Dixon, who leads Alexander Rossi by 29 points, will start on the front row, two rows ahead of Rossi. Dixon was leading the Firestone Fast Six final round of knockout qualifying when Rossi’s teammate Ryan Hunter-Reay won the Verizon P1 Award with a last-second lap of 1 minute, 17.6277 seconds (110.605 mph) around the 12-turn, 2.385-mile Sonoma Raceway circuit.
Instead of gaining the single bonus point for the pole position, Dixon’s margins in the standings remained the same – 29 points over Andretti Autosport’s Rossi and 87 over both Will Power and Josef Newgarden from Team Penske. Dixon will start second, Newgarden third, Rossi sixth and Power seventh when the race begins Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN and Advance Auto Parts INDYCAR Radio Network).
Dixon was leading qualifying and appeared to have a fast lap going at the end of the final session when his No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda went slightly off course. Hunter-Reay followed with a lap good enough to bump Dixon, take the bonus point and score his first pole since Long Beach in 2014.
For Dixon, the loss of a point wasn’t as significant as the loss of the front row would’ve been.
“Front row is a good start,” Dixon said. “Huge driver error there, just needed to get through a right and a left and it would’ve been looking pretty decent. The car felt good. Huge credit to the team; they’ve done a good job. Between Portland (two weeks ago, when he qualified 11th) and here, we came with a pretty different car, but it rolled off really well. I’m happy with that.”
Now, the strategy sessions begin. When asked after qualifying if he’d spent any time thinking about a plan for Sunday’s race, Rossi shook his head.
“Zero minutes,” Rossi said. “You’ve got to know where you’re starting first before you can talk about strategy. That will be tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow afternoon. All day tomorrow.”
Overshadowed by the championship battle was Hunter-Reay’s pole position, a critical yet small piece of comeuppance in the battle between Rossi’s team, Andretti Autosport, and Dixon’s team, Chip Ganassi Racing.
“I’m doing my part,” Hunter-Reay said. “I took a point away from Dixon.”
While qualifying offered few hints about a potential champion, Dixon and Rossi have a more forgiving path to the championship. If Dixon finishes ahead of Rossi, he wins the championship – as long as it’s no worse than 21st place. If Rossi wins the race, Dixon needs to finish third or worse (and not lead the most laps) for Rossi to claim the title.
For Dixon, who had appeared in the Firestone Fast Six in just one of five road-course races this season, performing well in qualifying was a blessing.
“We’ve really sucked in road-course qualifying this year, so it’s nice to actually make it to the Fast Six. … It’s nice to finish on a string not for qualifying,” he said.
While Dixon and Rossi have the easier routes to a championship, Power and Newgarden still have opportunities, but they need poor performances by both Dixon and Rossi. The winner receives 100 points, while the runner-up gets 80 points. One bonus point is awarded to drivers who lead a lap and two bonus points go to the driver who leads the most laps.
For either Power or Newgarden to pull off the miracle comeback, one must win, have Dixon go out in 24th or 25th place (and not lead the most laps), and Rossi finish 10th or lower.
Because of the wind – which bedeviled drivers during a test Thursday and practice sessions Friday and Saturday – and tire degradation, the chances for the two Team Penske contenders might not be as out of reach as thought.
“I think there will be passing because the tires degrade so much,” said Power, who had his poorest qualifying result of the season in the No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet. “I don't know. If everyone is going to degrade the same, some will go worse, but it's definitely going to be some strategy plays because of that because of the lap time drop.”
If Dixon wins the championship, he’ll become the only driver aside from A.J. Foyt to have more than four championships in the history of Indy car racing. Foyt claimed seven championships during a career that spanned parts of five decades. Dixon, Mario Andretti, Dario Franchitti and Sebastien Bourdais each has four championships.
Rossi, who joined the series in 2016, is going for his first championship. Newgarden is the defending champion and Power won the title in 2014.
Whoever claims the championship, it will be well-earned. Sonoma’s layout is known for its technical challenges, elevation changes, dust, wind and general difficulty. As the series bids farewell to the track after a 14-year run, it will leave with a skilled and grateful champion – whoever that may be.
“I love the track,” Dixon said. “It's very technical. It's very frustrating, but that's a good thing. It's hard to get right. When you do get it right – when you win here – it's pretty spectacular.”
Live coverage of the 85-lap race begins at 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday on NBCSN and the Advance Auto Parts INDYCAR Radio Network.