With four races to go starting with this week’s ABC Supply 500 at Pocono Raceway, the 2018 championship battle is getting down to the nitty gritty.
Will fans see the season end with a five-time champion in Scott Dixon, celebrate a second-time champion in Josef Newgarden, Will Power or Ryan Hunter-Reay, or maybe a maiden title for Alexander Rossi or rookie Robert Wickens?
It all starts Sunday on the 2.5-mile “Tricky Triangle,” where the six drivers who have the most realistic shot at the 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series crown and the $1 million prize will go to battle. Championship leader Dixon takes his 46-point advantage to Pocono looking to get as much out of each race as possible, while not worrying about what the drivers behind him do.
“We have the same approach at Chip Ganassi Racing every weekend. When we go in, we go there to win,” said Dixon, who drives the No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda. “And as Chip always says, ‘If you can't win, then we're going to try and be second. If you can't be second, try and be third.’
“Definitely the worst thing you can do is fall into a points-racing situation where you're thinking about where your fellow competitors are constantly throughout the race. Obviously, you should have a pretty good coverage on what you need to do, but you have to be very careful to not flip into a points-racing situation.”
Including the double points awarded at the INDYCAR Grand Prix of Sonoma season finale, there are 266 maximum markers up for grabs in the last four races (including bonuses awarded for pole, leading a lap and most laps led). Fourteen drivers remain mathematically alive for the championship heading to Pocono.
But with Dixon's average finish over the first 13 races at 4.5 – and with only two results outside the top six this season – it’s reasonable to think his consistency will continue in the homestretch. Assuming a haul of 150 points is possible for Dixon, it will be difficult for drivers more than 100 or so points behind to overtake him. That leaves it to Rossi (minus-46 points), Newgarden (minus-60), Power (minus-87), Hunter-Reay (minus-95) and Wickens (minus-114) to make a move.
The chasing drivers will likely mirror Dixon's strategy.
“It's just doing the right things that win races, basically,” said Power, the 2014 series champion and driver of the No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet. “You don't actually think of it as a championship, you just try to execute each day you're at the track.”
Of course, the pursuers agree it would help for Dixon to have a poor result or two.
“Being 95 points down to Scott,” said Hunter-Reay, driver of the No. 28 DHL Honda, “what needs to happen now is we need to go on a run and he needs to start having some bad luck, some difficult races, some circumstances going against him. Things like that, which it can do.
“You just have to keep your head down,” the 2012 Verizon IndyCar Series champ added. “In this series – it's the same way in a race – you could be starting mid-pack, back of the pack. If you go into it with the right mindset, keep your head down, be tenacious, persistent, you can win races, any of them, and you can win championships.”
The wild card is the double-points finale in Sonoma, which will make Dixon's defense more difficult, especially if he falters in the next three races and the gap shrinks. Even if Dixon carries a hefty lead to California, the possibility of a huge points swing will keep his rivals hungry.
“Double points helps you if you're far back like I am,” said Power. “You obviously would be very aggressive with your strategy depending on how you qualify. Maybe you take a big risk strategy-wise to do that. Even on the track as far as you race, you'd be quite aggressive. Yeah, double-points situation is great for my position.”
In his last three championships seasons, Dixon has been the points leader only once with four races remaining (2008). He came from behind to win the title in 2013 and ’15, but the 44-time race winner prefers to be the driver being pursued and not the one pursuing.
“I would always take leading the championship; it's definitely a good position to be,” Dixon said.
“We've come from behind with big deficits, and in 2008 I think we almost led the whole season and it came down to the wire. So yeah, personally, we just want to keep this lead and take it all the way throughout Sonoma. For me, it's crunch time, right: Everybody that's made it to this stage is well-equipped and very good at what they do.”
ABC Supply 500 activities begin with practice at 10:30 a.m. ET Saturday (live stream on RaceControl.IndyCar.com). Verizon P1 Award qualifying starts at 1:30 p.m. Saturday and airs live on NBCSN. A final practice begins at 4:45 p.m. Saturday (RaceControl.IndyCar.com).
Live coverage of the 200-lap race starts at 1:30 p.m. Sunday on NBCSN and the Advance Auto Parts INDYCAR Radio Network.
Get Will Power's thoughts on racing at Pocono Raceway here: