Scott Dixon is absolutely going to win the Verizon IndyCar Series championship. Wait, no. Alexander Rossi is just too good right now.
That said, Josef Newgarden really isn’t that much further back in the standings than Rossi, and he has four races, five-ish, considering the last of the season offers double points. But then there’s Will Power. And maybe, maybe, Ryan Hunter-Reay. …. Nah, it’s Dixon.
Wait. Maybe.
A case can be made for five drivers to secure the 2018 series championship. Four have won series titles already. That Dixon has won four of them and leads second-place Rossi – the lone driver of the group not to embrace the Astor Cup (yet) – by 46 points is a very big deal. That half of the races remaining are ovals and one of the road courses is back on the schedule for the first time since 2007 spices the mix further.
The championship forecast should be clearer after the ABC Supply 500 on Aug. 19 at Pocono Raceway, but it certainly won’t be resolved. Here’s the case for each contender.
The leader: Scott Dixon
The 38-year-old Ganassi Racing veteran is the proverbial rumble in the distance. His approach in the standings or on the racetrack appears to elicit dread, if not in his competitors themselves, then in those who spectate with a rooting interest for others. There are grounds for the broad-brush speak that Dixon catches other drivers late in seasons. See: Montoya, Juan Pablo, 2015. But the counter argument is in how he lost the points lead in the final race of the 2009 season and permanently with five races left last season.
That said, he’s won at two of the last four venues, including Pocono.
X factor: Dixon is renowned for his focus, and he will need it down the stretch not only on track but off. Being the belle of the free agent ball can be a motivating, validating stimulus. Being speculated upon and theoretically placed into the firesuit of a myriad of race teams – including Ganassi, Team Penske or one not even in the series yet, McLaren – according to various media reports can be grating, if not distracting.
The stalker: Alexander Rossi
A two-stop pit strategy at Mid-Ohio provided a maximum points bounty with a win, most laps led and a pole, moving the 26-year-old Andretti Autosport driver into a seemingly tenable spot at 46 points out. A winner at Long Beach who lost what would have been a second place – and 31 more points – when he locked brakes and slid off course late in the second weekend race at Belle Isle, Rossi has finished on the podium 46 percent of the time this season. Only Dixon equals his six top-three results.
Rossi, interestingly, has become incredibly transparent in revealing on which weekends he will be strongest, starting from the pole in both wins and in the Belle Isle race in which he led 46 of 70 laps but finished 12th with the late miscue.
X factor: Perhaps too much is being made of the Rossi vs. Robert Wickens rivalry/feud/dislike situation. Rossi at times appears annoyed by the question, then inserts a zinger about the Schmidt Peterson Motorsports rookie into the stream and ignites it all again. Or Wickens will offer an unscripted rebuke of Rossi for what he considered yet another on-track slight. At some point in the final four races, given that each has made of habit of contesting the same high-value real estate, Rossi may be very much in need of leniency from his foil, and it stands to reason Wickens will be in no mood.
The defender: Josef Newgarden
The Team Penske champion co-leads the series with three victories in 2018. Trouble is, two came in the first four races and results of 11th (INDYCAR Grand Prix), 15th (Belle Isle-2) and 13th (Texas) have been damaging. Newgarden was again exerting his will at Iowa – leading 229 of 300 laps, as late as Lap 255 – but a late yellow that prevented the race from restarting after Newgarden and several others pitted for tires, looks extremely costly and outside his control. He sits third in the standings, 60 points behind Dixon.
X factor: Newgarden, 27, won at Gateway last summer to assert himself in his successful title run. He has finished second twice at Pocono in the past three seasons. He also finished second at Sonoma last season, albeit on a different tack, to fend off teammate Simon Pagenaud to win the title. So there is a path and a history of success.
The longshot: Will Power
Make no mistake, this has been a good year for the Australian. That first Borg-Warner Trophy proves it. But Team Penske’s Power, 37, has a mathematical case to make. He could certainly use one more of the final races to offer double points, too, though. He’d likely choose Pocono, where he’s won twice consecutively. A winner of three of the last four 500-milers, Power is a meaty 87 points behind Dixon, however, because of four costly failed finishes.
X factor: Power knows what a rally looks like.
“Still in the game. It can change very quick. I was (77) points out coming into the month of May,” the Power, who swept the INDYCAR Grand Prix and Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. “I left the month of May leading the championship. Very focused on having a good finish to the season.”
The longer shot: Ryan Hunter-Reay
The Andretti Autosport driver was tied for second in points, 45 out, after finishing second at Road America in late June. But consecutive finishes of 19th (Iowa) and 16th (Toronto) have put him precariously 95 points behind Dixon. Of course, Hunter-Reay has also won at Pocono.
X factor: There is some freedom is just going for it, and Hunter-Reay, 37, certainly has it on multiple levels.